___Golden Globe Predictions __ Golden Globe Nominations __ Golden Globe Final Winner Predictions Posted: January 25, 2008 2:18 PM _____E-MAIL ME February 24, 2008 Final (Final) Predictions! Alright, I give up. I sweat and stress and kill myself over these predictions, and come tonight, I know there will be a "duh!" moment that makes me enter the whole process of self-deprecation again, so I give up. My predictions have been altered, probably from correct predictions, but I'm sticking with them. Here they are: Final Winner Predictions. Enjoy the show! Posted: January 23, 2008 1:18 AM _____E-MAIL ME February 23, 2008 Final Predictions! As I have been absent for a while, I must first give you my sincerest apologies. What with 2007 film burn out, excess work, and, frankly, the restoration of my sanity, I took a minor hiatus which might well continue for another month or so following the Oscars® tomorrow. As the site is being revamped, my attentions are constantly being pulled in that direction. That said, I have just updated my Final Winner Predictions for tomorrows Oscar® ceremony. These may change tomorrow as I review them, but as present thinking mandates, these are my winners. We'll see if that holds true in the morning, and if they pan out tomorrow night. I'll be back Monday with my reactions, so until then, enjoy the show! Posted: February 23, 2008 11:32 PM _____E-MAIL ME January 23, 2008 Nomination reactions: the good, the bad, and the whaaaaaa?! It was bound to happen. With each yearly batch of nominations, comes my yearly bitch about what went wrong. Yes, there is plenty of praise to throw the Academy's way, but inevitably, and certainly more heartily, come my criticisms for the nominations in question. And with that, it begins. The Good Kudos to the Academy for: ● recognizing Atonement as one of the five best films of 2007. I'm sure this will be a point of criticism from many, but as a fan of the film (my #4 of the year) I feel that "Atonement" has received a bum rap based on the excess hype that preceded it (think Dreamgirls, but exceedingly better). What "Atonement" is is the realization of perfection of craft, the fusion and mastery of genres, and a showcase of young British talent. Plus, I predicted it when most weren't so I needed it for my ego. ● honoring Tommy Lee Jones. It seems fairly obvious now. Why Jones slipped from the top 5 radar seems a mystery. He delivered one of the most powerfully felt performances of the year, one that stands heads and shoulders above a lot of the other Best Actor competition after direct comparison. And yet, hardly anyone was predicting his nomination. After two stellar performances this year, I am very pleased that he is being recognized, my competitiveness and ego be damned. ● booting an "easy pick" in the Best Actress category for Laura Linney of the perennially-overlooked club. Linney was the strongest part of a very strong ensemble trio in The Savages, a testament to her skill in itself. Problem is, the wrong easy pick was booted. While I am not the biggest fan of Angelina Jolie's performance in "A Mighty Heart," and while Cate Blanchett is always great and deserving, "Elizabeth: The Golden Age" was basically a dud and Blanchett went to few places not already explored in the 1998 original. She should have been replaced by Amy Adams' invigorating and warm performance in "Enchanted" or Tang Wei's brilliant, if less realistically plausible, performance in "Lust, Caution." A small gripe, however; as long as Linney's in, I'm happy. Alright, that's enough of the good stuff. Sure, there's more, but I'm bored. Time to get nasty (in the most loving of ways, of course). Continue here for the inevitable rantings. Posted: January 23, 2008 1:18 AM _____E-MAIL ME January 22, 2008 Heath Ledger found dead! In a sad twist on nomination day, Heath Ledger has been reportedly found dead in his apartment. With pills found near his body, as well as reportings on his mental state, have fostered suicide rumors. For any interesting look on this tragic story, watch the news or read about the effect of the Joker role on his stability. Scott Feinberg has an interesting look at/summation of this connectiom at his blog. Posted: January 22, 2008 4:37 PM _____E-MAIL ME January 22, 2008 Nominations Announced! ...And the verdict is...? Well, I correctly predicted 67 out of 101 nominations (68%) correctly, although I did snag 6 alternates. Might seem kind of weak, but this was a tought year, especially in the tech categories. As far as I can tell, I finished even with Kris Tapley of InContention and one behind Scott Feinberg of And The Winner Is... I'm happy enough with these results. I'm swamped and mentally exhausted right now, but I'll soon be back (tonight or tomorrow) with my thoughts on the nominations. For now, check out how I did here. And most importantly, I edged out Sam of FIRonline.net, just barely, in our contest, while Josh tied me in regulation, but edged me out in overtime (alternates). Posted: January 22, 2008 3:25 PM _____E-MAIL ME January 22, 2008 Predictions are a go (Juno, anyone?)! Alright, the predictions comparison page is now completed and uploaded. Check it out right here. This is an important contest. Its worth a year's worth of bragging rights. Now, I must sleep...for, oh, about 3 hours before I get up for predictions. See you soon. Posted: January 22, 2008 3:15 AM _____E-MAIL ME January 21, 2008 Predictions are a go (Juno, anyone?)! Finally, my predictions are up and can be found here or by following the Final Predictions link in the upper right corner! Yeah yeah, I know its 11:30, but they're in. I will continue working tonight (and, very soon, tomorrow morning) to upload the 'contest' between myself, Josh of MuchoMovies, and Sam of FIRonline.net. All three of our predictions will soon be uploaded on an easy-to-compare page, so be patient. I need a quick break, but until then, check out my predictions. Back soon. Posted: January 21, 2008 11:31 PM _____E-MAIL ME January 20, 2008 Final Predictions coming tomorrow! Its been a long, busy, and fairly productive weekend for MuchoMovies (a lot of house-keeping, top 10 generating, and site planning). Because of this, I could not finish, confidently, my predictions tonight. However, they will be ready tomorrow evening sometime, so check back in to see the best predictions around (sorry Sam). Posted: January 20, 2008 11:17 PM _____E-MAIL ME January 20, 2008 MuchoMovies 1st annual Nominations...just for fun It has definitely been too long since my last post, especially considering the time of year. In fact, I should probably be shunned from the prognosticating community; however, I return bearing gifts. Nothing particularly enlightening (not until tomorrow), but something fun. As many of you know, MuchoMovies/Oscar Intel is in the midst of a reinvention/rennovation. Soon, several online prognosticators and critics will be contributing to the site. Until then, however, I have concocted our own 'awards' ( I fear dubbing them Oscars for fear of a lawsuit). Four MuchoMovies contributors, as well as Sam from FIRonline.net and Matthew Lucas from From the Front Row have particpated in this nomination process. For our own amusement, we distributed ballots, picked our nominees for each category (using preferential voting), and tallied the votes using the same method as AMPAS (at least, using as much of the method as I can understand). Below are the results. Best Picture: ● The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford ● Juno ● No Country for Old Men ● There Will Be Blood ● Zodiac For the rest of the results, continue here. Posted: January 20, 2008 10:35 PM _____E-MAIL ME January 20, 2008 TOP 10s!!!!!! Finally!!!!!! Yes, you might consider them tardy, but MuchoMovies Top 10s of 2007 are finally here. Below are the Top 10s from MuchoMovies contributors, as well as one of the MuchoMovies community newcomers, Sam from FIRonline.net. Sam has already featured his Top 10 on his site, but after more screenings, has come up with a revised Top 10 to offer up here. For the rest of us, its our first go, and hopefully our last being as we waited this long already. They should be perfect, right? If you're laughing at this, you have probably just finished your 50th draft of your Top 10s. Same here. Anyways, here it goes.
Posted: January 20, 2008 9:51 PM _____E-MAIL ME January 11, 2008 Golden Globe Predictions So, I'll be busy tomorrow, so the predictions are going up today before Sunday's GGs are handed out. Besides, with the ceremony revamped in the way it was, this whole thing seems rather anti-climactic. So, I'm just getting to it. My predictions for this year's Golden Globe winners:
Posted: January 11, 2008 2:37 PM _____E-MAIL ME January 8, 2008
Posted: January 8, 2008 2:35 PM _____E-MAIL ME January 8, 2008 DGA Predictions Well, as you know the DGA announces tomorrow...err, today (ahh, the complexities of sleepless nights). The DGA nominations are going to be critical in assessing the rest of the awards season as they are definitely going to be the most solid indicator thus far. But keep it simple, right? Let's talk about the possibilties very briefly. The Coen Brothers look to be in a good place right now. Although they have not had the best success with the DGA, their film is being graciously and passionately received, and it would be daring to bet againt them. In the Western field, James Mangold has a chance for 3:10 to Yuma. The director is likely to be outshown by his actors, however, and he wasn't nominated for his last, and more director-friendly effort with 2005's "Walk the Line." Continue reading 'DGA Predictions' Posted: January 8, 2008 2:05 AM _____E-MAIL ME January 8, 2008 Critics' Choice and website recreation. Well, the (rather short) BFCA festivities are over and done with, while the awards chatter only flourishes. This is turning into one of the most exciting years in recent memory. What we saw tonight is that, as Sasha says over at AwardsDaily, "we don't know anything." There were surprises tonight, as well as votes that tell us little more than we already knew. I mean, how are we supposed to assess Saoirse Ronan's chances at a Best Supporting Actress nod when Nikki Blonsky is picking up the Best Young Actress award due to "Hairspray's" feel-good tone and Blonsky's overly-peppy, I'm-just-excited-to-be-in-a-movie demeanor. Now that that's out of my system, I will move on to the more exciting news for me. OscarIntel and MuchoMovies are going to be completely redone in the coming month(s). For starters, the (partially) separate sites will become one. The revamped MuchoMovies will act as an Awards Blog, along with hosting reviews, top 10s, awards information, etc. More importantly, however, MuchoMovies will feature a reviews compilation section. Myself, along with fellow online critics and awards prognosticators, will be databasing our reviews together of MuchoMovies for a Rottentomatoes/Metacritic-type venture. The details are still iffy, but you will be hearing more on this matter soon, as well as who specifically will be participating. Hopefully, as intended, this will help unify and empower those of us running our own sites and blogs as an online force. Here's hoping! Stay tuned. Posted: January 8, 2008 1:02 AM _____E-MAIL ME January 2, 2008 Happy (belated) New Year! And as my gift to you for 2008, I inform you of my December predictions (natch) which were completed in December, but not uploaded until today due to server problems. Either way, they're up now, so have a look. More updates soon. Posted: January 2, 2008 6:02 PM _____E-MAIL ME December 20, 2007 SAG Awards, awards, awards... The Awards page (link at top right) has been updated for everything from the past couple days. I don't keep track of guild awards there, so for you convenience, below is a complete list of the SAG nominations for film performances (minus the stunts). Also, make sure to keep up with the Top 10 scoreboard to see how the best films of the year are fairing, both qualitatively and quantitavively. SAG NOMINATIONS: Outstanding Performance by a Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture Posted: December 20, 2007 4:14 PM _____E-MAIL ME December 16, 2007 Golden Globes and Top 10s First off, my apologies for the lack of updates in the past couple days. I have been swamped. Hopefully, though, you have found the Golden Globe nominations by now, and remember to keep checking the Top 10 scorecard to see how films are fairing with critics. Categories will be updated by week's end. Be patient with me. Posted: December 16, 2007 1:32 AM _____E-MAIL ME December 13, 2007 Golden Globe predictions... ...can be found here. Take a look. Nominations will be announced in 6 hours, and it is then that I will ofer my analysis. For now, I look to my bed for a while before nomination time. Woot! (the Merriam-Webster word of the year, FYI). Posted: December 13, 2007 1:25 AM _____E-MAIL ME December 11, 2007 More awards, some analysis So, with the Chicago and BFCA nominations and the San Francisco film critics winners announced, we now have more than a handful of groups to contextualize within the awards race. The race is heating up with a nice mix of films showing up so far. No Country for Old Men has solidified its standing as the critics' pick, but that doesn't necessarily always translate into Oscar® gold. It seems to be doing well in the Adapted Screenplay and Supporting Actor categories, too. There Will be Blood has also picked up steam with some nice across-the-boards showings with various critics groups, and respectful recognition among the others. Daniel Day-Lewis seems to be solid, as does the cinematography and score work. The weakest link here seems to be P.T. Anderson, probably due to what many view as a flawed final scene in the film. Atonement seems to be getting the kind of admirable, if dispassionate, recognition that was expected. Hopefully, it doesn't become this year's Dreamgirls. Sweeney Todd is also doing well with many, while being seemingly ignored by others. It looks like it is fast becoming the hit-or-miss film this holiday season, while Johnny Depp is so far struggling with awards even when the film is a hit. This, more than likely, however, is related to various exceedinly strong performances that have the passionate following. When it comes to nominations, Depp should still be in the mix. Continue reading 'More awards, more analysis' Posted: December 11, 2007 7:00 PM _____E-MAIL ME December 10, 2007 NYFCC announces: 'No Country' nabs another win Check them out here: Awards. Posted: December 10, 2007 1:45 PM _____E-MAIL ME December 9, 2007 Los Angeles, New York Online, Boston, and D.C. Critics announce awards Check them out here: Awards. Posted: December 9, 2007 10:30 PM _____E-MAIL ME December 4, 2007 The NBR announces awards and...whaaaaaaat? The Bucket List?! Seriously? You're not kidding. Okay, then. Well, this year certainly was surprising, but that doesn't mean I'm necessarily disappointed. Sure, I only predicted four of the Top 10 correctly (although I did get No Country for Best Film, as pretty much everyone else did, too), but this may be because of the high number of quality films released this year. Nonetheless, suffice it to say that I am VERY pleased to see films like The Bourne Ultimatum and Lars and the Real Girl, as well as the best film I have seen this year, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford. What does all this mean? Probably not a whole lot. The Bucket List is still almost certainly going to be absent from awards season accolades, and Lars is still probably going to be largely ignored. Perhaps the best boost here is for the until-now apprehensively-regarded Sweeney Todd which was not only one of the Top 10 films of the year, but also evidenced Tim Burton's achievement as he was awarded the Best Director award. For now, I'm going to soak this in and reflect. Oh yeah, I also got one of my No Guts, No Glory picks right! And, I can't state for sure, but I didn't see anyone else who predicted Casey Affleck for Best Supporting Actor! I've been championing him ever since I saw the film, and he has not moved out of my Top 5 for the category one time! Here's hoping this gives him a well-deserved boost going into the heat of the season! Posted: December 5, 2007 5:30 PM _____E-MAIL ME December 4, 2007 National Board of Review announces winners: No Country is top film! Below is a full list of awards from the NBR official website. To read the NBR's statements, go here: http://www.nbrmp.org/awards/2007NBRWinners.cfm Best Film: NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN Best Director: TIM BURTON, Sweeney Todd Best Actor: GEORGE CLOONEY, Michael Clayton Best Actress: JULIE CHRISTIE, Away From Her Best Supporting Actor: CASEY AFFLECK, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford Best Supporting Actress: AMY RYAN, Gone Baby Gone Best Foreign Film: THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY Best Documentary: BODY OF WAR Best Animated Feature: RATATOUILLE Best Ensemble Acting: NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN Best Breakthrough Performance by an Actor: EMILE HIRSCH, Into the Wild Best Breakthrough Performance by an Actress: ELLEN PAGE, Juno Best Directorial Debut: BEN AFFLECK, Gone Baby Gone Best Original Screenplay: DIABLO CODY, Juno and NANCY OLIVER, Lars and the Real Girl Best Adapted Screenplay: JOEL COEN and ETHAN COEN, No Country for Old Men TOP TEN FILMS OF 2007 (in alaphabetical order) THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES ATONEMENT THE BOURNE ULTIMATUM THE BUCKET LIST INTO THE WILD JUNO THE KITE RUNNER LARS AND THE REAL GIRL MICHAEL CLAYTON SWEENEY TODD TOP FIVE FOREIGN FILMS OF 2007 (in alaphabetical order) 4 MONTHS, 3 WEEKS, 2 DAYS THE BAND'S VISIT THE COUNTERFEITERS LA VIE EN ROSE LUST, CAUTION TOP FIVE DOCUMENTARIES OF 2007 (in alaphabetical order) DARFUR NOW IN THE SHADOW OF THE MOON NANKING TAXI TO THE DARKSIDE TOOTS TOP INDEPENDENT FILMS (in alaphabetical order) AWAY FROM HER GREAT WORLD OF SOUND HONEYDRIPPER IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH A MIGHTY HEART THE NAMESAKE ONCE THE SAVAGES STARTING OUT IN THE EVENING WAITRESS Career Achievement - MICHAEL DOUGLAS William K. Everson Film History Award - ROBERT OSBORNE Career Achievement in Cinematography - ROGER DEAKINS The BVLGARI Award for NBR Freedom of Expression - THE GREAT DEBATERS and PERSEPOLIS Posted: December 5, 2007 3:45 PM _____E-MAIL ME December 4, 2007 More NBR Okay, so I've changed my mind in the last 2 days, and I've rethought some of the categories. First, I am getting rid of the multiple alternates. Who cares? An alternate is still wrong, and its only the NBR - why do I need two of them? Second, after reflecting on NBR trends, I have changed a few categories and ideas. So, with that, here are my final, alternate-free, predictions for tomorrow's NBR awards. (Again, 60% would be phenomenal!) Best Film: • American Gangster • Atonement • Before the Devil Knows You're Dead • The Diving Bell and the Butterfly • Into the Wild • Juno • The Kite Runner • No Country for Old Men *** (winner) • The Savages • There Will Be Blood Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood) • Alt: Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah) Best Actress: Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose) • Alt: Ellen Page (Juno) Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men) • Alt: Hal Holbrook (Into the Wild) Best Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett (I'm Not There) • Alt: Jennifer Jason Leigh (Margot at the Wedding) Best Director: Joel & Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men) • Alt: Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly) Best Adapted Screenplay: Atonement • Alt: Into the Wild Best Original Screenplay: Juno • Alt: The Savages Best Breakthrough Actor: Emile Hirsch (Into the Wild) • Alt: Sam Riley (Control) Best Breakthrough Actress: Ellen Page (Juno) • Alt: Saoirse Ronan (Atonement) Best Debut Director: Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton) • Alt: Anton Corbijn (Control) Best Foreign Language Film: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly • Alt: Lust, Caution Best Documentary: No End in Sight • Alt: Lake of Fire Best Animated Feature: Ratatouille • Alt: Persepolis Best Acting by an Ensemble: I'm Not There • Alt: Atonement No Guts, No Glory Picks: • Casey Affleck for Best Supporting Actor • Frank Langella for Best Actor • Gone Baby Gone for Best Film December 2, 2007 NBR Predictions Look at this. Two posts in ONE day. Insane, right? Well, the heat of the Oscar® season is now upon us, and we now find ourselves only days away from the first big awards of the year - those of the National Board of Review (announced Wednesday). The importance of the NBR awards is questionable, but they are important for us prognosticators. The films included (that is, besides the perennial random film always present in their top 10) do not necessarily reflect the best, but usually do reinforce the solid. Basically, if you're not on the NBR's top 10, that doesn't mean you are out by any means (look to last year's omission of The Queen). However, if you are a film of consequence (again, the random film, like last year's The History Boys, breaks these rules) then your place in the race in solidified. The NBR, while not very predictable, is also not usually too out there. The NBR often lends itself better to Golden Globe predicting than Oscar® predicting. That said, I am still going to venture a guess as to what may show up come this Wednesday. December 2, 2007 NBR Predictions Okay, so I know I promised I'd have updates by the end of last week, but I was swamped. Good news, though. My schedule is now progressively opening up, and it couldn't have at a better time. I have updated the Big Eight categories, as well as Animated Feature. However, this is only a transitional update as we move into December. The time of the season will call for faster and more furious updates, so I will be paying close attention to what's going on, and my charts will reflect this. For now, check the updated categories. November 20, 2007 Updates...coming presently. Tomorrow I will be viewing Beowulf, Lars and the Real Girl, and No Country for Old Men, and possibly Enchanted. The Oscar® front is rather quiet now, but a lot has come to light since my last post at the end of October. Therefore, based on the mixture of new buzz and my reflections on these films, Oscar Intel's predictions will be updated by week's end. Be on the lookout. October 30, 2007 Big 8 Update Updates, again. I'm getting more consistent, eh? Hopefully I can get the blog going more regularly now. Picture, Director, Acting, and Writing categories have been updated, reflecting the changing buzz of the last few weeks. I was planning on waiting until mid-November for my next updates, but it seemed to me as if the entire face of the race had changed in the last two weeks, so...here we go. That's how it works. "Nobody knows anything," as AwardsDaily states. That has become very evident in the past couple weeks. Here's to the next couple. October 17, 2007 Updates...Part Deux So, I have finally updated predictions in ALL categories. This was severely needed following the Toronto Film Festival and the rush of Oscar films that have been coming out int he past few weeks. Updates will be coming faster and more furious in the upcoming weeks and months, and hopefully so will some articles on the status of the race. This is my official kick-off to Oscar season! September 12, 2007 Updates! Somehow, I always seem to forget just how long it takes to update my predictions. Anyways, after hours upon hours upon hours upon...okay, I'm exaggerating, but it did take a while. And now the fruits of my labor may be beheld. Predictions are updated (post-Toronto) in Picture, Director, and all acting categories. Screenplay and technical updates should be coming in the next week or so. Be on the lookout. |
